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Wales Civil Society Forum on Brexit Newsletter 24th May 2019

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Cylchlythyr / Newsletter

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Beth sydd wedi digwydd ers wythnos diwethaf?


Cyflwynodd Theresa May ‘Gynllun Newydd’ o’r enw ‘Seeking Common Ground in Parliament’. Cafodd y cynllun hwn ei wrthwynebu’n chwyrn sydd wedi:

  • Arwain at ei chyhoeddiad y bydd hi’n ymddiswyddo ddydd Gwener 7 Mehefin. Mae disgwyl i’r ras am arweinyddiaeth y Ceidwadwyr ddechrau’r wythnos wedyn (dyma eglurhad o sut y bydd y ras yn gweithio). 
  • Oedi cyhoeddi’r Bil Cytundeb Ymadael drafft. Roedd Llywodraeth y Deyrnas Unedig wedi bwriadu’n wreiddiol ei wthio i’r wythnos sy’n dechrau ar 3 Mehefin, ond yn sgil ansefydlogrwydd y sefyllfa ar hyn o bryd ni fyddai oedi pellach yn peri syndod. 
  • Cynyddu’r tebygolrwydd o adael yr UE heb y cytundeb ymadael.

Mae crynodeb o Gynllun Newydd Theresa May ar gael yma. Efallai fod llawer o hyn i’w weld yn gyfarwydd…

Ac mae hynny’n ddealladwy gan nad yw llawer ohono’n newydd.

Y prif beth a ddaliodd sylw oedd yr 2il Refferendwm. Yn y cynnig hwn, pe bai’r Bil Cytundeb Ymadael yn cael ei dderbyn fel yr awgrymir gan y Prif Weinidog, byddai hynny’n rhoi pleidlais i ASau i benderfynu a ddylid cynnal refferendwm cyn y gellir cadarnhau’r Cytundeb Ymadael.

Ni fyddai derbyn y Bil Cytundeb Ymadael sy’n cynnwys y ddarpariaeth hon yn sicrhau refferendwm – ni fyddai ond yn sicrhau pleidlais yn Nhŷ’r Cyffredin i benderfynu a ddylid cynnal un. Ond does dim sicrwydd o gwbl y bydd hyn yn parhau’n bosibilrwydd ar ôl y ras am yr arweinyddiaeth.
 

What’s happened since last week?


Theresa May presented a ‘New Plan’ entitled ‘Seeking Common Ground in Parliament’. This triggered significant backlash which has:

  • Led to her announcing her registration on Friday 7 June. The Conservative leadership contest is expected to start the following week (explainer on how this works here). 
  • Delayed publication of the draft Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB). The UK Government had initially planned to push it to week of 3 June, but the instability of the situation is such at this point that further delays would not be surprising. 
  • Increased the likelihood of leaving the EU without the withdrawal agreement (a ‘no-deal’ Brexit).

A summary of Theresa May’s New Plan can be found here. A lot of this might sound familiar…

Understandably so as much of it isn’t new.

The standout was the 2nd Referendum. Under this proposal, if the WAB were accepted as suggested by the Prime Minister, this would give MP’s a vote on whether to hold a confirmatory referendum before the Withdrawal Agreement can be ratified.

Accepting the WAB in this form would not guarantee a referendum however – only a vote in the Commons on whether to hold one. Though it is highly uncertain that this will remain on the table after the leadership contest.

 

Brexit heb gytundeb yn bosibilrwydd cryf unwaith eto

Mae’r ras am arweinyddiaeth y Ceidwadwyr yn golygu bod Brexit heb gytundeb yn bosibilrwydd cryf unwaith eto ac mae opsiynau ASau wedi’u cyfyngu i rai gwleidyddol i atal hynny. Dylai mudiadau barhau i ystyried beth mae hyn yn ei olygu iddyn nhw a rhannu hynny â’r rheini sy’n gwneud penderfyniadau. Rydym wedi cyhoeddi canllaw (Cymraeg / Saesneg) i helpu mudiadau i feddwl am rai o’r cwestiynau hyn.
Mae’r Athro Anand Menon a’r Athro Catherine Barnard yn rhybuddio y dylem ddisgwyl galwadau o’r newydd am ‘Brexit Glân’ ar delerau Sefydliad Masnach y Byd. Mae’n bwysig cofio bod y term ‘dim cytundeb’ yn dal i fod yn gamarweiniol, gan fod dau gytundeb ar wahân dan sylw:

  • y cytundeb ymadael
  • a pherthynas fasnach â’r UE yn y dyfodol.

Mae defnyddio’r gair ‘glân’ yn anonest hefyd, oherwydd bydd gadael heb gytundeb ymadael ymhell o fod yn ‘lân’, gan fod pryderon wedi’u mynegi ynghylch oedi mewn cadwyni cyflenwi, mwy o rwystrau i ddarparu gwasanaethau a chydweithredu ym maes cyfiawnder troseddol…

A ‘no-deal’ Brexit is firmly back on the radar


The conservative leadership contest places a no-deal Brexit very firmly back on the radar and MP’s options are limited to political ones to prevent it. Organisations will want to continue thinking through what this means for them and sharing this with key decision makers. We have published a guide (English / Welsh) to help organisations think through some of these questions for them.
Professors Anand Menon and Catherine Barnard warn that we should expect renewed calls for a ‘Clean Brexit’ on WTO terms. It is important to remember that the term ‘no-deal’ remains inaccurate, because we are talking about two separate deals:

  • the withdrawal agreement
  • and a future trade relationship with the EU.

The use of ‘clean’ is also dishonest, because leaving without a withdrawal agreement will be anything but ‘clean’, with concerns articulated around delays in supply chains, increased barriers for service provision and cooperation in criminal justice…

 

Cadw’r dyddiadau a darllen pellach

Rydym yn cydweithio i gynnal cyfres o ddigwyddiadau yn Llundain ar 26 a 27 Mehefin. Gallwn gefnogi costau teithio a llety i alluogi cyfranogwyr i ddod i un o’r digwyddiadau hyn neu sawl un ohonynt, felly mae croeso i chi gysylltu.

  • Seminar gan Equally Ours: Hawliau dynol yng nghyd-destun Brexit: sut mae datganoli yn newid y ffordd o weithio ledled y DU?
    • Dyddiad: dydd Mercher 26 Mehefin
    • Amser: 1-4pm, cinio ar gael o 12 ymlaen
    • Cofrestrwch yma (cyfrinair: BrexitHR2019) 
  • Sesiwn briffio gan y trydydd sector ar gyfer ASau a chyfle wedyn i rwydweithio mewn derbyniad diodydd. Ar hyn o bryd rydym yn eich gwahodd i gysylltu os oes gennych ddiddordeb mewn briffio ASau neu ddiddordeb yn y sesiwn. Oherwydd ansefydlogrwydd y sefyllfa rydym wrthi’n cadarnhau’r trefniadau.
    • Dyddiad: dydd Mercher 26 Mehefin i’w gadarnhau
    • Amser: ar ôl 4PM i’w gadarnhau.
    • Lleoliad: i’w gadarnhau.
  • Trafodaeth Ford Gron Cymdeithas Sifil a Datganoli i fudiadau o Gymru, yr Alban a Gogledd Iwerddon yn Llundain ar 27 Mehefin. Manylion i’w cadarnhau.

Darllen Pellach:

Save the dates and further reading
 

We are collaborating on a series events in London over the 26 and 27 June. We are able to support with travel and accommodation costs to enable participants to attend one or multiple events, so please do get in touch.

  • Equally Ours Seminar: Human rights in the context of Brexit: how is devolution changing approaches across the UK?
    • Date: Wednesday 26 June
    • Time: 1-4pm, with lunch available from 12 noon
    • Register here (password: BrexitHR2019) 
  • Third sector briefing for MP’s followed by a networking drinks reception. We would welcome expressions of interest at this stage to brief MPs and to attend. Due to the unpredictable nature of the situation we are still in the process of confirming.
    • Date: Wednesday 26 June TBC
    • Time: after 4PM TBC.
    • Venue: TBC.
  • Civil Society Devolution Roundtable for organisations from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in London on 27 June. Details TBC.

Further Reading:

Race Council Cymru Windrush Cymru Project – Our Voices, Our Stories, Our History
WCVA Learning: Safeguarding in the Third Sector (Wales)

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