Wales Civil Society Forum on Brexit Newsletter 17th May 2019

Pleidlais Nesaf Brexit: Beth sydd wedi newid?

Er gwaethaf wythnosau o drafod, does dim llawer wedi newid ar y cyfan.

Mae’r BBC yn adrodd bore ‘ma y bydd y trafodaethau trawsbleidiol yn dod i ben heb gyrraedd cytundeb.

Golyga hyn y dylai pobl gadw llygad ar ddau ddatblygiad Brexit sydd y gorwel:

• Pleidleisiau Dangosol 3.0? Y cynllun o’r cychwyn oedd y byddai Theresa May, pe bai’r trafodaethau yn methu, yn dychwelyd at bleidleisiau yn Nhŷ’r Cyffredin i geisio dod o hyd i gydsyniad. 
• Bil y Cytundeb Ymadael: Datgelwyd y bydd y Bil yn cael Ail Ddarlleniad (dadl eang ar egwyddorion y bil) yn yr wythnos sy’n dechrau 3 Mehefin a’i gyflwyno ar gyfer y Darlleniad Cyntaf ‘cyn gynted â phosib’. 

Nid y ‘Bleidlais Ystyrlon’ nesaf mo hyn serch hynny – y tro hwn bydd ASau yn dadlau’r ddeddfwriaeth a fyddai’n rhoi’r Cytundeb Ymadael ar waith mewn cyfraith ddomestig. Mae’n ddeddfwriaeth arwyddocaol iawn – a bydd ar bobl eisiau paratoi at graffu arno heb, o bosib, lawer o amser i wneud hynny.

Yn dechnegol, mae dal angen cymeradwyaeth drwy’r bleidlais ystyrlon er mwyn dilysu’r cytundeb – ond nid yw’n amhosib y bydd Llywodraeth y Deyrnas Unedig yn ceisio cael gwared â’r gofyniad hwn drwy Fil y Cytundeb Ymadael.

A oes gan y Bil siawns o basio?

Ar hyn o bryd, ymddengys fod y siawns yn isel o ystyried nad oes dim byd sylweddol wedi newid. Serch hynny, mae Theresa May wedi cytuno i osod amserlen ar gyfer ei hymadawiad – a gallai hyn newid pethau drwy orfodi dewis rhwng Brexit heb gytundeb a dirymu erthygl 50 (canslo Brexit yn gyfan gwbl).

Gweler yr erthygl hon gan Institute for Government ar 16 Mai i gael dadansoddiad manylach.
 

Next Brexit Vote: What has changed?

Despite weeks of talks, in a nutshell, not all that much.

The BBC are reporting this morning that the cross-party talks are set to cease without reaching an agreement.

This means people will want to keep an eye on two upcoming Brexit developments:

• Indicative Votes 3.0? The plan all along was that if the talks broke down – Theresa May would go back to votes in the Commons to try and find a consensus. 
• The Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB): It has been revealed that the WAB will undergo Second Reading (broad debate principles of the bill)  in the week of June 3 and will be introduced for First Reading ‘asap’.

This isn’t the next ‘Meaningful Vote’ however – this time MP’s will debate the legislation that would give effect to the Withdrawal Agreement in domestic law. This is a very significant piece of legislation – and people will want to be prepared to scrutinise it with potentially, little time to do so.

Technically, approval through the meaningful vote is still necessary for the agreement to be ratified – however it is not impossible that the UK Government will try to edit out this requirement through the WAB.

Does the WAB have a chance of passing?

Current indications suggest the chances are low given that nothing substantive has changed. However, Theresa May has agreed to set a timetable for her departure – and this may change the dynamic by forcing a choice between a no-deal Brexit and revoking article 50 (cancelling Brexit altogether).

See this Institute for Government post from 16 May for a more detailed analysis.

Trafodaethau Diweddar ar Gronfa Ffyniant Gyffredin y DU (UKSPF)

Ar 14 Mai cynhaliwyd dadl yn Neuadd San Steffan ynglŷn â’r pwnc hwn.
Nododd Dan Jarvis, a arweiniodd y drafodaeth, nad oes rhagor o eglurder ynghylch y canlynol:

• Faint o gyllid fydd ar gael
• Pa weithgareddau fydd yn gymwys
• Pwy fydd yn gwneud penderfyniadau

Nododd hefyd y bydd yn ganolog i’r Adolygiad o Wariant, ac amlinellodd ei bedair egwyddor yntau ar gyfer y gronfa:

1. Dim lleihad yn y cyllid
2. Dim proses ymgeisio gystadleuol
3. Rhaid ei datganoli’n llawn
4. Rhaid iddi fod yn amlflwyddyn y tu hwnt i adolygiadau o wariant a chylchoedd seneddol.

Cynhaliwyd trafodaethau pellach ar 15 Mai pan atebodd Ysgrifennydd Gwladol Cymru gwestiynau ar lafar ynglŷn â’r UKSPF.
Dyma a wnaeth Alun Cairns yn ei atebion:

• Nid ymrwymodd i gadw at y lefelau cyllido presennol a chanolbwyntiodd ar ‘roi’r arian ar waith yn well’ a nododd, yn gryptig, y byddai Cymru’n cael ei ‘chyfran deg’.
• Canolbwyntiodd ar fyd busnes ac awdurdodau lleol, a oedd yn adlewyrchu ffocws y ddadl ar 14 Mai o ran ffyniant, busnes a strategaeth ddiwydiannol.
• Pan ofynnwyd iddo, gwrthododd dawelu sïon y byddai’n defnyddio dull ymgeisio cystadleuol.

Deunydd darllen a argymhellir:

• Adroddiad Llyfrgell Tŷ’r Cyffredin ynglŷn â’r UKSPF
• Nigel Wilcock, cyfarwyddwr gweithredol Institute for Economic Development: What is going on with the Shared Prosperity Fund?.

Recent Discussions on the UK Shared Prosperity Fund (UKSPF)

On 14 May there was a Westminster Hall debate on this topic.
Dan Jarvis who led the discussion noted there is no more clarity on:

• How much funding will be available
• What activities will be eligible
• Or about who will make decisions

He also noted that it will be central to the Spending Review, and laid out his own four principles:

1. No reduction in funding
2. No competitive bidding
3. Must be fully devolved
4. Must be multiannual beyond spending reviews and parliamentary cycles.

Further discussions took place on 15 May when the Secretary of State for Wales answered oral questions on the UKSPF.
In his answers Alun Cairns:

• Would not commit to matching existing funding levels and focused on ‘better delivery’ and noted cryptically that Wales would receive its ‘fair share’.
• He focused on business and local authority, which echoed the focus of the debate on 14 May on prosperity, business and industrial strategy.
• When asked, would not quash rumours that it would use a competitive bidding model.

Recommended reading:

• House of Commons Library report on the UKSPF
• Nigel Wilcock, executive director of the Institute for Economic Development: What is going on with the Shared Prosperity Fund?.

Ar y gweill

• Trafodaeth Ford Gron Brexit ac Anabledd yng Nghymru ar 6 Mehefin rhwng 13:30 a 16:30 yng Nghaerdydd. Rydym yn cydweithio ag Anabledd Cymru i gynnal y drafodaeth hon a fydd yn ystyried goblygiadau Brexit i bobl anabl mewn meysydd fel hawliau cyfreithiol, iechyd a gofal cymdeithasol a hygyrchedd ac rydym wrth ein boddau o groesawu Jane Hutt AC a Jeremy Miles AC. Mae peth arian ar gael ar gyfer teithio / llety os hoffech ddod i’r digwyddiad ac rydych yn teithio o’r tu allan i Gaerdydd. Gallwch weld y manylion llawn a chofrestru yma.
• Gwasanaethau Cymorth ar gyfer y Cynllun Preswylio’n Sefydlog i Ddinasyddion yr UE: Cysylltwch â ni neu’n uniongyrchol â Bethan Bateman ([email protected]) yn Llywodraeth Cymru os hoffech fod yn rhan o ymdrechion i gydlynu’r gwasanaethau yng Nghymru sydd wedi’u hariannu i gefnogi dinasyddion bregus yr UE gyda’r Cynllun Preswylio’n Sefydlog. Rydym yn bwriadu cynnal cyfarfod cyntaf ynglŷn â hyn gyda Llywodraeth Cymru ar 12 Mehefin. Mae Llywodraeth y DU wedi rhyddhau rhestr (anghyflawn yn ôl pob golwg) o fudiadau a ariannwyd gan y Swyddfa Gartref ar gyfer hyn; mae’r rhestr ar gael yma.
• Dylanwadu a rhwydweithio yn San Steffan: Rydym yn gwahodd datganiadau o ddiddordeb i gymryd rhan mewn sesiwn briffio i ASau ar oblygiadau Brexit (ac o ystyried yr amgylchiadau, o bosib ynglŷn â Bil y Cytundeb Ymadael) sy’n cael ei threfnu ar gyfer diwedd Mehefin. Byddwn yn cynnal y sesiwn hon ar y cyd â Brexit Civil Society Alliance a gobeithiwn drefnu derbyniad diodydd ar ôl y sesiwn i roi cyfle i fudiadau ac ASau rwydweithio. Bydd arian ar gael i hwyluso trafnidiaeth a mynediad felly croeso i chi gysylltu. Bydd rhagor o wybodaeth ar gael yn fuan.

Up next

• Brexit and Disability in Wales Roundtable event on 6 June from 13:30 to 16:30 in Cardiff. We have teamed up with Disability Wales for this event which will explore the implications of Brexit for disabled people in areas such as legal rights, health and social care and accessibility and are delighted to be welcoming Jane Hutt AM and Jeremy Miles AM. We have some funding available for travel / accommodation if you would like to travel from outside Cardiff to attend. Full details and registration are here.
• Support Services for the EU Settlement Scheme: Please get in touch with us or directly with Bethan Bateman ([email protected]) in the Welsh Government if you would like to be involved in efforts to coordinate the services in Wales which have been funded to support vulnerable EU citizens with the EU Settlement Scheme. We are planning a first meeting on this with the Welsh Government on 12 June. The UK Government has released a (seemingly incomplete) list of organisations funded by the Home Office for this available here.
• Influencing and networking in Westminster: We are seeking expressions of interest to take part in a briefing for MP’s on the implications of Brexit (and given the circumstances, potentially around the Withdrawal Agreement Bill) scheduled for late June. We will be co-hosting this with the Brexit Civil Society Alliance and hope to follow-up with a networking drinks reception for organisations and MP’s. There will be funding available to facilitate travel and access so please get in touch. More information will be available soon.