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What happened last week?


Well the BBC’s ‘Was this the weirdest week in Westminster’ was aptly named even by Brexit standards of oddness. By the end of the week the Cooper Letwin Bill had passed by one vote, the press (and many others) had revelled in the opportunity to spin puns around the water leak in the Commons which forced an adjournment and Theresa May had, again, requested an extension to 30 June from the EU and entered into formal talks with Labour in a bid to get her deal through the Commons. 

What’s happening this week?


There are just a few days left until Brexit. There is a lot happening in parallel this week as all eyes this week will be on:

  • The Labour/Conservative negotiations
  • the outcome of the Cooper/Letwin Bill process
  • the EU Summit starting on Wednesday.

Extension 2.0?

It’s looking like we are heading for another extension, though the duration, and circumstances are unclear.

The EU has returned to the idea of a longer extension and may have lowered its requirements for a concrete plan to justify extra time. However, the request to 30 June was met with scepticism by the EU, and there is an expectation that this particular request may be denied.

The Cooper Letwin Bill – Is it still relevant now that an extension has already been requested to 30 June?

The answer to this is yes according to Professor Elliot. If the Bill passes the Lords on Monday 8 April, the effect could be to force Theresa May to request another extension to a date of the Commons choosing as early as Tuesday. This means the EU Council meeting on Wednesday could be faced with two requests – one from the UK Government and one essentially from the UK Parliament. What would happen then depends on how the EU reacts, but is uncertain as the original Bill leaves open many questions.

Cross-party talks

For the PM, this is about getting her deal through the Commons.
For Corbyn this is an opportunity to push his demands for a softer Brexit (such as a permanent customs union).

If the talks between Labour and the Conservatives do fail, it is expected that the UK Government will ask the Commons, to come up with a solution. Jill Rutter of the Institute for Government has highlighted that Theresa May’s strategy has several hurdles in its way and indeed early echoes have suggested the talks are breaking down.

A significant challenge is that there are few options for guaranteeing that any offer made to Labour will be respected by a future government. The IfG concludes that Labour may have to rely on political guarantees because any legislative ones could be overwritten anyway.

Further reading

25 April - The Public Law Project Wales Conference

 


 

Beth ddigwyddodd wythnos diwethaf?


Wel roedd teitl erthygl gan y BBC, ‘Was this the weirdest week in Westminster’, yn addas iawn hyd yn oed yn ôl safonau rhyfeddwch Brexit. Erbyn diwedd yr wythnos roedd Bil Cooper Letwin wedi pasio o un bleidlais, roedd y wasg (a sawl un arall) wrth ei bodd o gael y cyfle i chwarae ar eiriau pan oedd dŵr yn gollwng yn Nhŷ’r Cyffredin a orfododd ohiriad a gofynnodd Theresa May, eto, am estyniad tan 30 Mehefin gan yr UE a dechrau trafodaethau ffurfiol â Llafur mewn ymgais i sicrhau bod ei chytundeb yn mynd drwy Dŷ’r Cyffredin.

Beth sy’n digwydd wythnos yma?


Diwrnodau yn unig sydd i fynd tan Brexit. Mae llawer yn digwydd ar yr un pryd wythnos yma wrth i lygaid pawb droi at y canlynol:

  • y trafodaethau rhwng Llafur a’r Ceidwadwyr
  • canlyniad proses Bil Cooper/Letwin
  • Uwchgynhadledd yr UE sy’n dechrau ddydd Mercher.

Estyniad 2.0?

Ymddengys fod estyniad arall ar y ffordd, ond mae ei hyd a’i amgylchiadau yn aneglur.

Mae’r UE wedi mynd yn ôl at y syniad o estyniad hwy ac o bosib wedi lleihau ei ofynion am gynllun pendant i gyfiawnhau amser ychwanegol. Serch hynny, ymatebodd yr UE ag amheuaeth i’r cais am estyniad tan 30 Mehefin, ac mae rhai’n credu y gallai’r cais penodol hwn gael ei wrthod.

Bil Cooper Letwin – A yw’n berthnasol nawr bod y DU eisoes wedi gofyn am estyniad tan 30 Mehefin?

Yr ateb yn ôl yr Athro Elliot yw ydi. Os yw Tŷ’r Arglwyddi yn pasio’r Bil ddydd Llun 8 Ebrill, gallai hynny orfodi Theresa May i ofyn am estyniad arall tan ddyddiad o ddewis Tŷ’r Cyffredin mor gynnar â dydd Mawrth. Golyga hyn y gallai cyfarfod Cyngor yr UE ddydd Mercher wynebu dau gais – y naill gan Lywodraeth y DU a’r llall mewn gwirionedd gan Senedd y DU. Mae’n dibynnu ar ymateb yr UE beth fyddai’n digwydd nesaf, ond mae’n ansicr gan fod y Bil gwreiddiol yn gadael sawl cwestiwn yn agored.

Trafodaethau trawsbleidiol

I’r Prif Weinidog, y nod yw sicrhau bod ei chytundeb yn mynd drwy Dŷ’r Cyffredin.
I Corbyn, dyma gyfle i fynnu Brexit mwy meddal (megis undeb tollau parhaol).

Os yw’r trafodaethau rhwng Llafur a’r Ceidwadwyr yn methu, disgwylir i Lywodraeth y DU ofyn i Dŷ’r Cyffredin gynnig datrysiad. Mae Jill Rutter o’r Institute for Government wedi amlygu bod sawl rhwystr yn wynebu strategaeth Theresa May ac yn wir mae sïon cynnar wedi awgrymu bod y trafodaethau yn methu.

Un o’r heriau mwyaf yw nad oes llawer o opsiynau a fyddai’n gwarantu bod unrhyw gynnig a wneir i’r Blaid Lafur yn cael ei barchu gan lywodraethau yn y dyfodol. Daw’r IfG i’r casgliad y gall fod angen i’r Blaid Lafur ddibynnu ar warantau gwleidyddol gan y gellid disodli unrhyw warantau deddfwriaethol beth bynnag.

Darllen pellach

25 Ebrill – Cynhadledd Cymru Prosiect Cyfraith Gyhoeddus.